Formula to win at bookmakers. Win-win sports bets

28/ 06/ 2016 21:00

How to win on bets at a bookmaker?

Just a few years ago, sports betting was a gambling and risky hobby, but today it does not cause any negative or controversial emotions. This change has occurred due to a sharp decline in fraudulent bookmakers and the availability of clear and accessible advice on how to win bets at the best bookmakers or sweepstakes.

In addition, there are services that provide sports forecasts and analytics for free, which also increases the likelihood of making a profit. So is it possible to win on every bet?

You can place bets with trusted bookmakers and win real money

How much can you earn from betting?

Generating income through betting can be considered a high-risk investment. But at the same time, with the help of this type of earnings you can get a much larger amount than, for example, from a bank deposit.

To minimize unpleasant situations, you should definitely follow one simple rule: You can only bet on free finances, that is, those that you are ready to lose without risking your future. Under no circumstances should you bet funds taken from the family piggy bank, or money received on loan.

How to bet and win real money? Is there a secret to success?

To use useful and effective strategies that bring profit, the initial payment must be enough for at least 50 of your bets. In addition, a novice player will need such aspects as:

regular access to the Internet;
free two to three hours that can be allocated for betting every day;
attentiveness and complete control of one’s own emotional state;
interest in one or a couple of sports.

The practice of experienced players has shown that the most profitable sport for betting is tennis. Despite this, most bets are placed on everyone's favorite football.

For those who don’t yet know how much you can win on sports betting, let's give an approximate figure. Players on average receive approximately 10% of the invested amount. But with a positive attitude towards winning, experience and the use of risky strategies, you can earn 50% of the invested funds.

Football betting is the most common start for a beginner

Football accounts for the largest number of bets, despite the high risks in this sport and frequent force majeure circumstances. The popularity is due to the universal love for this sport, as well as the large number of football analysts and the availability of information about players and matches.

How much can you win on football bets and how to place them correctly?

You can regularly win on sports betting on football

To begin with, it should be noted that not a single experienced player has a permanent income thanks to his own instinct or intuition. To understand how to learn how to win bets at a bookmaker's office, you need quite an impressive amount of experience and a strong mindset to win. There is no need to be sad about mistakes, but it is better to take them into account. For most football bets to bring positive emotions, you should not forget the following points:

It is not recommended to constantly bet on the favorite team, as sooner or later it will be overvalued.
You should not bet on absolutely all leagues, but it is better to choose a couple of those about which there is the most information and in which you yourself show more interest.
It is better not to take part in top matches, since the odds in such cases are verified with astronomical accuracy.
You always need to control your own emotions, namely, be determined to win, and not think about “why do I always lose on bets.”

With a competent approach, correct analytics and a reliable bookmaker on football, you can win up to 40% of the bet amount.

Golden rules of winning

It is worth remembering that to get regular winnings on bets, it is not enough to guess the result from time to time sports competition. It is important to constantly develop yourself in analytical and gaming personal abilities, because even an experienced player is not able to accurately answer the question of how to learn to win on sports betting. But you can significantly increase the likelihood of receiving regular profits by following these tips:

You need to choose the right bookmaker, and it is better to have several reliable companies in mind, because only fair play can bear fruit.
It is necessary to learn how to properly manage your own finances, since even a 100% correct forecast will not bring income if money is spent irrationally.
The psychological state is a key point, since only emotional stability, confidence in victory and adequate acceptance of defeats, as the most important components of the game, can lead to an understanding of how to be guaranteed to win on bets.

Is it possible to learn to win on sports betting? Of course you can, but to do this you will have to devote a lot of time to self-development and studying the features of your chosen sport, plus use competent advice and forecasts from experts. We are ready to actively help you with this - study our

All bettors want to receive stable profits from bets at bookmakers. However, not everyone succeeds. Not everyone knows how to calculate the size of bets. Some players lack discipline, which is why they get excited and lose significant amounts.

In this article, we will look at what a bookmaker client needs to do in order to receive regular income. What are the main approaches used by professional cappers to beat the office over a long distance?

Who profits from betting?

A myth has taken root among many bettors that a very small percentage of players have regular income from sports betting. This situation happened relatively recently, when access to sports statistics was not so global. With the development of Internet betting, the number of successful players has increased significantly. True, there are more bettors who make risky bets, especially online.

Who constantly beats the bookmakers? First of all, these are those players who know how to correctly use the game bank for bets. They actively use financial strategies, betting calculators and find value bets. Among the main qualities of professional bettors are the following:

Ability to work with match statistics
Proper banking
Ability to find profitable positions in the bookmaker's line
Using financial and sports strategies
High stress resistance during losing bets

Most experienced bettors generally understand how to place bets correctly. But they are unable to stay in the black over the long term when playing against bookmakers. It is enough to take a rash risk in one or more bets or incorrectly analyze the team’s chances, and you will lose. Many rush to win back the spent funds, further reducing the gaming bank. This is absolutely impossible to do.

How do successful players bet? First of all, they pre-study the line as soon as it appears. They select profitable bets (values) that will allow them to make a profit over a long distance. Such positions are usually valued at odds above 2.5. One example is betting on draws in football.

As a rule, the odds for a draw are higher than 3. If you find teams with a large number of draw outcomes, then there is a high probability that the bookmakers will offer favorable odds for a peaceful outcome. You can find out more about the strategy for betting on a draw in football in this article.

Professional bettors differ from ordinary players in that they know how to refuse unprofitable bets and never strive to win back lost bets. They understand that any bet can be a loser. Therefore, they set the task of obtaining total profit not from one bet, but from many bets.

Proper management of the game bank

One of the main components of successful betting is the correct use of funds in the gaming account. To make the right bets in a bookmaker, you need to correctly calculate the size of each bet. To achieve this, various financial betting strategies are used. The most popular of them are:

Flat
Kelly criterion
Miller management

The size of the odds directly affects the size of the bet. The optimal value for bets with odds of 2 is 5% of the bank. For beginners, we can recommend from 2 to 4%. If for bets with odds 2 the bet size is 5%, then for other odds the values will be as follows:

If a player uses several sports strategies, then it is reasonable to divide the pot into several parts for each. For example, if a bettor bets on strategies on and on, then this technique will allow you to determine which of them brings more income.

As for the so-called catch-ups, in most cases they lead to the bank being reset to zero. Only a small number of non-aggressive catch-up techniques can be used.

Accounting for bets

Controlling the balance of bets is a necessary condition of the game. Without understanding how successful a bettor is at various stages of the game with the office, it is difficult to evaluate his activities. Every bet must count. It is necessary to clearly state the odds, bet size and final score of the match.

It's better to create a spreadsheet that tallies up all your wins and losses. This way the player will always know whether they are in the black or in the black at the moment. Here is one example of such tables:

Here you can clearly see on what event, at what time and with what odds the bets were placed. If desired, you can make several tables for different strategies, combining the balance into one. This way you can determine your monthly or weekly income. Having spent a certain amount of time creating such tables, the player will be able to competently organize the betting process.

Using a demo account

A very useful tool for betting is a demo account. With its help, you can test sports strategies and test your own betting skills. Essentially, these are training bets.

Some bookmakers, such as Winline, Betcity on their official websites provide users with the opportunity to create a virtual gaming account. These are trial rates. Players do not win or lose real money here. The betting process is organized in exactly the same way as real money betting. The line with events and odds are the same as the regular one.

What is the use of a demo account? First of all, with its help, beginners quickly adapt to the betting process. They will learn to correctly calculate the bet size, will be convinced from their own experience which specific sports are suitable for betting and which are not so suitable, and will be able to choose the optimal strategies.

Experienced bettors, as a rule, have their own betting methods. They come up with new ways to beat the bookmaker. Testing these methods with real money bets is quite risky. Using a virtual account, this can be done painlessly for personal funds.

How to find profitable odds on a line?

The most important condition for successful betting is to search for events with favorable odds. How to determine whether the odds for a particular event are profitable or not? To do this, you need to determine the chances that a given event will occur and convert these chances into odds. If the resulting odds are higher than the bookmaker’s odds, then the event is profitable for betting.

Chances are converted into odds by dividing 100 by the chance as a percentage. For example, if the chances of an event are 60%, then in odds it will be: 100/60= 1.66. To determine the chances of a particular event, you need to use the statistics of matches played.

For example, team “A” won 7 home matches out of 12. And team “B” lost 6 away matches out of 12. Based on these statistics, the home team's chances of winning are 7/12 = 58%. Chances of your opponent losing: 6/12= 50%. Averaging these values, we get a 54% chance of the home team winning. We convert this value into a coefficient: 100/54 = 1.85. Now all that remains is to find a bookmaker who has set a higher odds for this outcome.

The same methodology is used to determine the odds and odds for other positions in the list: totals, handicaps, corners. As mentioned above, it is profitable to bet on events with high odds. The difference between real odds and bookmaker quotes is often quite significant.

As an example, we can take bets on the same draws. The odds for a draw in the German Championship are as follows:

If you look at the statistics of the draws of these teams, you get the following picture:

We see that many teams have more than 30% of drawn matches. This means that the odds for a draw involving them should not exceed 3.3. But, as can be seen in the example above, in the vast majority of cases quotes exceed given value. The situation is approximately the same with the odds for underdogs versus favorites.

Break even

Many bettors specialize in betting on certain odds. Some bet on events with odds of 2-2.5, others bet on events with odds of 1.7-1.9. To make a certain profit on bets with specific odds, you need to win a certain number of bets. To do this, it is necessary to determine the break-even point for a specific ratio.

There are break-even point calculators. With its help, the bettor determines how many bets he must have won at the specified odds in order to receive a certain profit.

In this case, we see that to get a 20% profit from bets on events with odds of 2.5, you need to guess 48% of the bets. For events with a coefficient of 1.8, this figure is 66%.

Similar calculators can be found freely available on the Internet. To successfully play in bookmakers, you cannot do without them.

Discipline in betting

Many novice players often break down at the first setbacks. In the beginning, they did everything right, used financial and sports strategies, and calculated the size of each bet. If, after a series of lost bets, they resorted to aggressive catch-ups and unjustifiably increased the size of the bets, then such actions will inevitably lead to the loss of the bank.

To avoid this, you must strictly adhere to the chosen tactics. You should never give up and increase your bet even after a series of defeats. Experienced players understand that series of won and lost bets are inevitable. Therefore, they learned to treat them calmly. They clearly understand that after 100 or more bets there should be a total income. It is not so important which bets were winning and which were losing.

It is very important to save psychological stability: do not fall into excessive euphoria after a series of wins and do not become discouraged after a series of losses.

Fair play

You should not resort to various frauds when playing with a bookmaker. These techniques have long been known to bookmakers. Common methods of dishonest gaming include registering an account under false names, fraud related to the game account, transferring login and password to other users, and playing together with other clients.

It should be clearly understood that such methods are strictly suppressed by the office administration. Blocking an account with the impossibility of withdrawing funds will be a very offensive punishment. It will be very difficult, and often impossible, to register again with this office.

It’s better to immediately play by the rules of the office. During the registration process, you must provide correct information so that there are no problems with your game account later. Clients of legal bookmakers who play by the rules, as a rule, do not have problems with withdrawal of funds.

Conclusions

You can win consistently at bookmakers if you follow all the tips given above. It should be clearly understood that this requires a correct assessment of the teams’ chances. You must be able to work with statistics and find profitable bets in the bookmaker's list. Under no circumstances should you give in to excitement and increase the bet size.

Whatever you bet on, each bet already includes the bookmaker’s or casino’s profit - its margin.

The simplest example of margin is roulette: 36 black and red numbers, as well as green 0 and 00 (US only). So if you bet on red or black, your chances of winning are 18/38, and each winning $1 bet should pay out $2,111. In fact, if successful, you receive exactly 2 dollars, and the rest goes to the casino, which thus guarantees itself a profit.

It's the same in sports betting. An example from tennis, where there are no draws. Two equal tennis players are playing. In an ideal world, the odds for everyone to win should be 2.0. But in such situations, the office will break even, so most likely you will see odds, for example, 1.9 and 1.9 (not the worst option). This 10% is the office's profit.

How to beat a bookmaker: a strategy that works

Thousands of players have been racking their brains for many years on how to beat and ensure a stable profit.

A team of scientists from the University of Tokyo led by Lisandro Kaunitz became interested in a similar question. With the typical tenacity and meticulousness of scientists, they plunged into the research and found a way to regularly beat the bookmaker in online football betting.

Their method turned out to be outrageously simple. The scientists decided to proceed from the fact that bookmakers’ odds are the most objective reflection of a team’s chances of winning or drawing, plus an adjustment for margin.

A particularly good indicator of probabilities is the average of the odds from different bookmakers, a kind of wisdom of the crowd. This produces average odds that Kaunitz and his colleagues say are a surprisingly accurate reflection of real-world probabilities.

After this, it remains to find coefficients that would stand out significantly against the background of average values. This is exactly what scientists did. They created an odds scanner that found quotes that differed from the market average.

Before putting real money into action, scientists analyzed almost 500 thousand football matches from 2005 to 2015. The strategy paid off - at a rate of $50 over 10 years, the scheme would have brought in almost $100,000 in profit.

To make sure this success wasn't a fluke, they compared the results to a second experiment where they simulated 2,000 bets on random outcomes on the same matches. Bets on random outcomes brought a loss of $93,000.

It became obvious that the scheme worked, and it was time to test it in combat conditions.

There was one nuance - in real world Players cannot always bet on line closing odds. Therefore, they created a bot that would collect odds from an hour to five before the start of the event.

Surprisingly, the result was even better - a profit of 9.9% compared to 3.5% in the first case.

Over the course of 5 months, scientists made 265 bets of $50 each. These bets won 47.2% of the time, generating a profit of $957. As a percentage, that's a solid 8.5% return.

Bills cut

When playing for real money, the scientists made significantly fewer bets, but as Kaunitz explains, they did not have a special operator who would place bets day and night, so they simply missed many events. But this does not change the essence - the scheme was profitable. Kaunitz and his team found the Achilles heel of bookmakers.

But where would we be without a big fly in the ointment? Although scientists did not break the rules, after a few months their limits were severely limited or manual checks were introduced before acceptance. All this made further profit making impossible.

In summary, Kaunitz says he and his colleagues are dissatisfied and disappointed: “Bookmakers everywhere are inviting new customers to place bets with them, but people are expected to only lose. If there is a profit, the bets are limited.”

The team notes that this practice is legally questionable. The client does not receive what is offered to him, including in advertising of bookmakers. This is where fraud can be seen.

Kaunitz and his team called on governments different countries pay attention to this area, but will it change anything in real life - big question. Nevertheless, the experiment turned out to be interesting.

Newbie bettors constantly ask experienced players how to win 100% against a bookmaker. At first glance, you made a bet, invested money, and you are in the black if your forecast was justified. In reality, the picture is not so optimistic, since it requires skill from a novice bettor. Typical mistakes of beginners include making indiscriminate forecasts and using the advice of “experienced bettors” in practice, which simply confuse the cards for a young player. The combination of all factors leads to the bettor becoming disappointed in the bookmaker and leaving the market. One thing is worth saying: it is best for a beginning player to initially work on himself. Figure out for yourself whether betting is really your thing, or a short-term way to make money.

Every beginner has heard about “instant” earnings online. Many young bettors mistakenly believe that there is easy money in betting. In fact, this is a labor-intensive process that can be equated to intellectual work. Those who have studied the structure of betting from beginning to end are unlikely to leave the market, because they understand perfectly well that there is no easy money in betting, but if you put in all your efforts and study the structure deeply, you can make good money.

According to statistics, only 10% of beginners remain in betting until the end, the rest believe that they are either unlucky or bookmakers are not their element. If you want to be one of the lucky 10%, then find out how to win a lot of money at a bookmaker.

There are additional statistics that say that out of 100% of bets, at best, 25% are won back. The remaining 75% is a negative result. So, if you want to take on the bookmaker, be prepared to spend money, but you don't have to blow your entire bank.

General advice for beginners: spend no more than 1-3% of your budget on the first 100-200 bets. This will give you a guarantee that you will not lose your entire bankroll, and in addition you will learn how to manage your finances in betting. Start betting with minimal expenses, this will make it easier for you to simultaneously learn and understand the entire structure of how betting works.

It starts with the ordinary ones. But the more experienced the player becomes, the greater the chance for novice players to answer the question correctly. how to win an express bet at a bookmaker. Experience comes with time, and knowledge always remains the baggage that will give the bettor confidence in the future of a 100% win.

The Basics of Successful Forecasting

All activities in sports betting involve risk. This is something you need to remember always, even when you become an experienced player. You should always use only where you are guaranteed to be able to withdraw your winnings. Some people mistakenly believe that betting and casinos are the same thing. Nothing of the kind. The casino is the well-known “one-armed bandit”, which is programmed to extract money from you. Sports betting has a completely different structure, and the main points can be determined by three bases:

Clear analytics of sports movement.
Competent financial management.
General accounting of all identifiers that affect the outcome of the result.

Analytics as the moment of truth of the forecast

In betting analytics, this is a whole school that takes into account various factors necessary for accurate forecasting. To win against, you need to sort out all the analytical data that needs to be used to place a bet.

If you want to win 100% from the bookmaker, then consider the following criteria for the team or player:

Current position in the standings:
Availability of face-to-face meetings;
Face-to-face meetings both at home and away;
Results of the latest games;
Analysis of games with teams that are higher and lower in the standings;
Performance in games at home and away;
Sports components for a club or player;
Current movement in bookmaker lines;
Technical losses of each team;
Psychological and physical health of the player;
States of the playing field;
Weather factors;
Judging team;
Supporting Information.

As you can see, analytics uses a huge number of components that decide the outcome of an accurate sports bet for the bettor. Often, parameters that unexpectedly appear during the tournament can have an impact.

Personal budget management

Always count on the budget that you can realistically afford. Get rid of fear and use your common sense when distributing money between bets. If you lost, and bigly, take a break, study the reasons for the loss. If you won big, don’t rush to spend all your money on new bets. Develop within yourself a professional financial manager who will independently plan your budget, while panic and idle euphoria should have no place when planning personal finance.

General accounting

Analyze losses and wins in conjunction with your current budget. If there is a well-developed tactic, feel free to use it, but do not forget about your common sense and calm. This way, you will avoid catastrophic consequences for your personal budget.

Thus, for a 100% win, use the classic bettor formula:

Analytics + Budget + Accounting = Win.

How to win at bets

In order for a bettor to be guaranteed 100% success, it is necessary to know the bookmakers’ kitchen. Each office sets its own, which determine the effectiveness of the outcome of the meeting. In addition, beeches (BC) constantly publish both their own and third-party analytical studies. Sports news is an important point for determining a winning bet based on the analytics of each criterion.

Each office receives its own margin. For example, if the beeches set an equally certain outcome of the match, then the odds will not be 50/50, but most likely 46/46. The remaining 8% will go to the treasury of the sports office.

But, you need to remember that the odds difference is not the only source of income for bookmakers. The organization makes money by adjusting the same ratios, as well as on the basis of actual financial flows and existing public opinion.

The bookmaker, in turn, begins to artificially lower the odds for players and teams, creating profitable ways for themselves to receive additional profit.

Some bettors confuse the concept of bookmaker and betting. Figuratively speaking, beeches win from the bettor’s loss, and the betting house earns its margin exclusively from intermediary services.

All odds are calculated by representatives of bookmakers according to certain schemes and are displayed as a decimal fraction, etc.

Calculation example

Let's take an example to analyze the probable 100% win of two equal ones.

For example, let's take a value of 36%, which indicates an equal probability of each participant's club winning, and 28% will indicate the probability that one and the other team will most likely play in a draw.

We take the following into account: (36) + (36) + (28) = 100%

Now we calculate the decimal type of Kef using the traditional calculation method:

= 2,78.

In a similar way, we calculate Kef for an equivalent event:

= 3,57

Attention! To simplify the calculation, we did not take into account the book margin.

If the bets were determined correctly, then we can be guaranteed to win:

100 x 2.8 =280

Now let's calculate the net profit:

280 – 100 = 180

Thus, you paid 100 rubles for the bet, but won 180 RUR.

Additional forms of increasing winnings

In addition to the well-known bets, there are additional strategies and tactics in betting that increase the likelihood of a 100% win with bookmakers. Each tactic has its own nuances and cases of application; we will briefly describe each strategy:

Dogon. This option is used to place bets on the same event until the sporting event ends. Most often, this method is used in the mode
Corridor. Forecasting can be done in parallel in two or more bookmakers. The subject for winning a bet is an event with the same events. For example, in one bookmaker you bet on Olympiacos to win, and in another on Liverpool. If your forecast is convincing, you take the profit from the first one, and from the second one, only in the worst case, the amount is burned. Here you can either lose from 1 bookmaker, or win from both beeches at once.
Flat strategy. The bettor makes a profitable bet at the same fixed price. This way you can avoid losing your entire bankroll. The trend of the strategy is slow, you will be able to win only slightly, but all your money will be in place. For example, you have 10,000 rubles, you make a forecast in the amount of 5% of the total bankroll volume. In this case, the bet will be made for exactly the amount of 500 rubles. Here the capital will not grow exponentially, but the probability of losing all your funds will tend to zero.
. This technique is good because you can make a forecast that is most beneficial for yourself for several events. You can break even or win big. Bettors consider this option a win-win, since in any situation, you can win back or get your money back. Bookies have an extremely negative attitude towards arbers, so they limit their own Odds or may block an account.
The Value Bettor strategy or Value Betting, sometimes called the method of an underestimated event on the part of the bookmaker. The fundamental task is this: the bettor studies the line of positions in the bookmaker and finds sporting events with increased odds. Let's take for example the event in the Dynamo Kyiv - Shakhtar tournament, almost all bookmakers without exception bet on the favorite (Dynamo Kyiv), relying on the parameters of superiority in a certain strength and tactics of the game. Experienced bettors do the opposite of the Valuy scheme - they give preference to Shakhtar. It is enough to have one single misfire on the part of Dynamo Kyiv, and bettors can win a solid pot, since the Odds in this case are always impressive.

These points are very important for those who want to actually win 100% against the bookmakers.

What hinders and contributes to the bettor’s winnings?

In conclusion, we list the main points that help and hinder a bettor from winning 100% against beeches.

Moments that help you win against bookmakers:

You need to have an analytical mind;
Extreme attentiveness, as well as deliberation, are the standard of success for a bettor;
You must have constant access to the Internet;
It is important to make forecasts for a sport in which you thoroughly understand;
You should always have free time available;
The bettor must be patient and emotionally stable.

What prevents you from winning from a bookmaker:

Lack of proper control over one’s actions and excessive emotional pressure;
Constant forecasting mode for the same favorite;
The eternal pursuit of unbridled greed and profit;
Reckless bets on an unknown or unfamiliar team participant or player;
Gambling as a stimulus for behavior in bookmakers;
A huge number of forecasts at once.

It is best to place no more than 3 bets at a time. In this way, you will maintain your emotional health and be able to develop a professional strategist in the fight against bookmakers.

Learn from experienced bettors, they will always help you “get used to” the constant stress within the hustle and bustle of betting, thus, you will be able to realize “protection immunity” from ruin and extreme euphoria. The main thing is to control yourself and constantly control your actions, without succumbing to either disappointment or excessive euphoria.

Uppsala University professor David Sumpter decided to test his knowledge of statistics and luck in football betting, and at the same time earn some extra money. With £400 in hand, the professor earned a net £108.33 in two months, which is 27%. This is not a jackpot, but I can’t imagine how such an amount can be increased better while remaining within the law.

According to the professor, bookmakers usually pocket 5% (the bookmaker's margin), which corresponds to odds of 1.90 for two equally likely outcomes (for example, the outcome of a tennis match). That is, if you simultaneously bet 50 rubles on each of these two outcomes, then after the game, instead of the original 100 rubles, you will have 95 rubles in your hands for any result, and 5 rubles will end up with the bookmaker. So pretty soon you will be left without money. However, thanks to competition between bookmakers and the existence of low-margin bookmakers, odds for individual sporting events can have a margin of 1.5%, and for top events like the World Cup final - even lower. In this case, you need to beat the bookmakers by at least 2% in order to remain profitable on sports betting. This became the goal of the Swedish professor in his field research.

The mathematician used various statistical models, of which he applied four in practice, but only one of them helped him make money. But first, I will talk about the professor’s models that did not live up to expectations and did not bring profit.

Model #1. There is an index of European football clubs, which is called the Euro Club Index. The index increases when a team wins and decreases when a team loses. The details of the professor's calculations in this model are unknown, but it is believed that it is a variation of the Bradley-Terry logistic regression equation. The professor's forecasts based on the Euro Club Index generally went well, but he was unable to beat the bookmakers' margin - he suffered a stable loss.

Another tactic that did not pay off was relying on expert opinions - in this case, on the forecasts of NBC journalist Joe Prince-Wright, who had previously successfully predicted the position of Premier League clubs in the final championship standings. The result of the game according to this model did not satisfy the professor. The mathematician soon changed tactics, simultaneously concluding: Expert predictions are not bad as entertainment, but usually do not help you beat the bookmakers.

The third model, more successful than the first two, used the Poisson distribution, . Each shot on goal was assigned a specific value, which was determined by the historical statistics of shots taken in the same position (for example, inside or outside the penalty area). This method helped the author predict Chelsea's failure at the beginning of the season, but led to an overestimation of the chances of Arsenal and Liverpool. He didn’t lose money, but the forecasts were so bold that the professor decided that this model was unlikely to be useful at a distance.

The fourth method, which the professor developed by the middle of the Premier League season, turned out to be successful - identifying long-term biased expectations. A scientist at Uppsala University has noticed over the years a clear tendency to underestimate favorite teams and big clubs. This was the case, for example, in the 2014/2015 season, when bets on Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City winning over teams lower in the standings would have brought in little profit. That is, the top clubs in England won a little more often than outsiders than the odds indicated. The professor gave this explanation: players, in pursuit of big profits, neglected small winnings, reluctantly betting on strong teams, which influenced the coefficients. However, in the 2015/2016 Premier League season there was an adjustment, and this trend was reversed - large favorite clubs were overvalued in the odds, which culminated in Leicester's championship with odds of up to 5001.0.

At the same time, scientists discovered another long-term trend, which turned out to be the most tenacious: the likelihood of a draw in top matches is underestimated. There are reasons for this. Media and social media stir up passions and intransigence before the game; the players themselves do not like to bet on a draw. The famous English football hooligans also do not add to the peaceful mood in the Premier League. It was long-term trends, including undervalued draw odds, that allowed the professor to win bets often enough to prove the existence of a pattern.

It is useful to remember this when betting on Premier League football matches. Mathematics professor David Sumpter wrote about this and much more in his book Soccermatics . It's not a free download, but I think it's worth the money if you know English.

And finally secret fifth forecast model, which the professor used, and it's called - "ask your wife" . However, as it turned out, the professor’s wife from Sweden also teaches mathematics and is quite good at betting. In any case, within a month she made £17 in profit from an initial amount of £100. This may be the secret ingredient to a successful forecasting strategy: combining statistical methods and the use of .